The militants are now only a few miles from Kabul and on the verge of reclaiming complete control
Will the Taliban take over Afghanistan? Here’s what we know so far
It is a triumph for the Taliban, and a humiliation for the West.
On Saturday the Ilamist group captured a large, heavily defended city in northern Afghanistan in a major setback for the government, and were only miles from the capital of Kabul.
The fall of Mazar-e-Sharif, the country’s fourth largest city, which Afghan forces and two powerful former warlords had pledged to defend, hands the insurgents control over all of northern Afghanistan, confining the Western-backed government to the centre and east.
There were unconfirmed reports on Saturday night that the Taliban had also captured Jalalabad, the country’s fifth-largest city which sits near the Pakistan border.
It comes after the group took Kandahar on Friday in a seemingly unstoppable offensive.
They have now captured more than a dozen provincial capitals in a week, putting them on the verge of reclaiming complete control of Afghanistan by next month’s 20th anniversary of the September 11 attacks.
It is a fast-moving situation and with telephone lines down across the country it is difficult to confirm exactly what is happening. Here is what we know.
What do they control?
The Taliban have captured roughly half of Afghanistan’s 400 districts since their latest offensive began in May.
On Saturday they captured Mazar-i-Sharif and on Friday they captured Zaranj, the capital of the southwestern province of Nimruz. They went on to capture Sar-e-Pol, Sheberghan, Aybak, Kunduz, Taluqan, Pul-e-Khumri, Farah, Faizabad, Ghazni, Herat, Lashkargar, and Qala-e-Naw.
Early on Friday, they said they had taken Kandahar, bringing the total number of provincial capitals captured in a week to 14.
The government still controls Kabul but there are growing fears that the capital could fall imminently.
Why are they winning?
Senior US officers and White House officials insisted before the withdrawal began in May that the Afghan police and army were up to the job of defending themselves. They were clearly wrong.
At least part of the problem seems to be morale. While special forces units continue to fight, regular troops in many places appear to have withdrawn voluntarily or accepted offers to surrender, allowing Taliban fighters to roll into towns unopposed.
Others argue that is partly due to a loss of hardware and capability.
Tom Tugenhadt, a Conservative MP and former soldier who served for four years in Afghanistan, argues Afghan troops have been cynically deprived of the battle-winning technology Western forces taught them to rely on.
“The decision to withdraw is like a rug pulled from under the feet of our partners. No air support, none of the maintenance crews able to service their equipment – that was done by US contractors, now gone,” he wrote on Thursday night.
“Training a man to fight with his eyes open and then blindfolding him before his title bout is going to have only one result.”
Where are they getting their kit?
Somehow, the Taliban has been able to deploy a well-planned nation-wide offensive, with simultaneous operations at opposite ends of the country.
And they suddenly appear to have no shortage of men, weapons, ammunition, or fuel.
Some of those resources will be self-funded. The Taliban make a lot of money from opium smuggling, and as the offensive rolls on they have captured an increasing quantity of American kit abandoned by government troops.
There are also reports of jihadi fighters from neighbouring countries bolstering their ranks.
But is that enough to explain their recent success? Many Afghans and Western observers also place the blame squarely on Pakistan.
Pakistan’s government has always denied allegations that its ISI intelligence service provides the Taliban with training, funding, and weaponry – not to mention a safe haven from US-led troops.
In 20 years of war, those accusations have never gone away. And it is clear that Pakistan sees installing a client government in Kabul as key to its national security. The Taliban, many observers believe, are that client.
But the past week has also seen the Taliban make gains in parts of the country where Pakistan traditionally has little sway.
On Sunday, the Taliban overran Kunduz, a strategic city in the north of the country.On Thursday, hundreds of troops holding out at the city’s airport surrendered, handing over even more weaponry and equipment.
Can they be stopped?
Ashraf Ghani, the president of Afghanistan, on Wednesday flew to Mazar-i-Sharif, the most important northern city, to rally local anti-Taliban warlords against the insurgents.
He had previously tried to sideline them in favour of the official army and police force, but they may be his only hope.
Predominantly Uzbek and Tajik militias loyal to controversial figures like Abdul Rashid Dostum and Atta Mohammad Noor held parts of the North against the Taliban in the 1990s and were allies of the US-led invasion in 2021. They may conceivably do so again.
The US government is also mulling increasing airstrikes in support of government forces.
But it is difficult to see how the Afghan government could win back the initiative without concerted foreign support.
What is the West doing?
On Saturday night, the United States said it would send 5,000 troops to Kabul to assist in evacuation. The British government is sending 600 paratroopers to do the same.
The choice of troops is telling. The Paras are a tip-of-the-spear unit that is deployed in an emergency and when there might be serious fighting to do.
But the limits of their mission are clear: to assist in evacuating UK citizens and Afghans granted permission to seek refuge in Britain, and move the embassy to a secure location. They are not to assist their former Afghan allies in combat.