Omicron could lead to more hospitalisations than the previous wave seen in January 2021 unless ‘Plan C’ measures are introduced, scientists have suggested.
Covid latest news: Omicron could lead to more hospitalisations than last January without ‘Plan C’
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Omicron could lead to more hospitalisations than the previous wave seen in January 2021 unless ‘Plan C’ measures are introduced, scientists have suggested.
Experts from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) predict that a wave of infection caused by omicron – if no additional restrictions are introduced – could lead to hospital admissions being around twice as high as the previous peak seen in January 2021.
They said the current Plan B restrictions, which include the wearing of face-masks, working from home and a wider booster jab rollout may not be enough to control the spread.
Scientists projected that hospital admissions could reach anywhere between 175,000 to 492,000 between December 1 this year and April 30, 2022, while deaths could range from 24,700 to 74,800.
They said bringing in additional measures early in 2022, such as restricting indoor hospitality or social mixing and closing some large entertainment venues, could be sufficient to control the wave.
Dr Rosanna Barnard, from LSHTM’s Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, who co-led the research, said the modellers’ most pessimistic scenario suggests that “we may have to endure more stringent restrictions to ensure the NHS is not overwhelmed”.
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Lockdown may be needed as ‘last-resort’ to combat omicron, say scientists
Experts from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine have said “non-pharmaceutical interventions”, such as lockdown, may be needed to control the spread of omicron and prevent hospital admissions reaching an unsustainable peak.
In their research paper, scientists assumed omicron causes the same severity of illness as delta, but did not look at the impact of measures such as mass testing to control its spread.
They projected that hospital admissions could reach anywhere between 175,000 to 492,000 between December 1 this year and April 30, 2022, while deaths could range from 24,700 to 74,800.
The paper read: “These results suggest that omicron has the potential to cause substantial surges in cases, hospital admissions and deaths in populations with high levels of immunity, including England.
“The reintroduction of additional non-pharmaceutical interventions may be required to prevent hospital admissions exceeding the levels seen in England during the previous peak in winter 2020-2021.”
Contracting omicron could act as ‘natural vaccine’, says scientist
Catching the omicron variant could act as a “natural vaccine” among people who are currently unvaccinated against coronavirus, an immunologist has suggested.Advertisement
Eleanor Riley, a professor of immunology and infectious diseases at the University of Edinburgh, said that Britons are “very likely” to contract the variant “in the next couple of weeks”.
“Everybody’s very likely to experience it in the next few weeks. If it is milder, and we know infection induces an immune response, [so] it is possible that this could act as a natural vaccine, getting to those people who have so far been unwilling to be vaccinated,” Prof Riley told BBC Radio 4.
“But I think we have to exercise a huge degree of caution with that, because there’s a huge ‘if’ about this ‘is it milder?’ And I think it’s very dangerous to compare data from South Africa to the UK. In the South African population there’s been so many waves of infection they’ve gone through, lots of immunity and a much younger population.”
Prof Riley advised people to act on the basis that anybody they come into contact with could have coronavirus, and scientists had already feared research on Friday which showed dramatically reduced vaccine efficacy against omicron after two doses.
Social mixing plummeted before Christmas 2020, new research finds
Social mixing and people travelling between cities rose sharply after the second UK lockdown, before suddenly falling a few days before Christmas 2020, according to new research.
Researchers at the University of Southampton’s demographic data experts WorldPop analysed the movements of anonymous Facebook users in the UK from March 2020.
They found that there was a peak in people travelling and mixing following lockdown two in November 2020, before a dramatic drop in movement from around 18-20 December 2020.
London and the south-east was placed under Tier 4 restrictions on 19 December 2020, meaning people were told not to leave their local areas, not to stay overnight outside of their homes and non-essential hospitality and retail was closed.
Professor Andy Tatem, WorldPop’s director, said: “Our analysis of the weeks approaching and after last Christmas shows there was a sudden surge in activity immediately after the November lockdown ended and then a dramatic drop in the ten days from around 18th-20 December.
“With levels of infection currently still high ahead of this Christmas and concern about the new omicron variant, our study gives useful insights into people’s response to the tightening and relaxation of measures, as well as into mixing patterns during the festive season.”
The research has been published in the International Journal of Health Demographics.
Poll: A third of people believe No 10 Christmas parties will damage public health
A third of people believe that Downing Street’s 2020 Christmas parties will lead to more Covid deaths in a potential future wave, a new poll has found.
Polling by Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice, NEON and Opinium found that 68 per cent of respondents said they will blame Boris Johnson or the Conservative Party for any undermining of public health measures caused by reports of Christmas gatherings at Downing Street last year.
The poll, of 2,042 British adults, also found that 60 per cent of respondents who voted ‘Leave’ in the EU referendum will blame the Prime Minister or the Tories for any potential damage to public health as a result of the parties, a worrying figure for ‘Red Wall’ MPs.
Fran Hall, spokesperson for Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice, said: “This week has been incredibly painful for bereaved families, with the news of the Christmas party bringing the devastation, hurt and anger flooding back.
“Worse is that the true impact of Government figures breaking their own rules might yet be to come.
“If people lose confidence in the public health measures necessary to protect lives from the Omicron variant, families could go through the same pain and suffering that we have as a result.
“The fact is Boris Johnson is becoming a public health hazard.
“It’s hard to see at this stage that the country wouldn’t be safer with a more credible leader in charge. At the very least the Prime Minister needs to come clean and start telling the truth – it’s the only way he can salvage any credibility.”
Omicron cases mean ‘tsunami of infections’ facing Scotland, warns Nicola Sturgeon
Scotland is facing a “tsunami” of omicron Covid-19 cases and the variant could become the dominant strain as early as next week, Nicola Sturgeon has warned.
In a stark update, the First Minister said a huge surge in cases is “virtually certain” and predicted the more transmissible strain would “run riot” throughout the population in the coming days and weeks.
Her Government produced a new evidence paper yesterday, in which it was revealed that while only 109 omicron cases have been confirmed, a further 48 “highly probable” and 930 possible infections had been identified.
It said that omicron cases were doubling roughly every two-and-a-half days, meaning “omicron is likely to make up the majority of cases in Scotland between mid-December and early January 2022”.
Read more from our Scottish Correspondent Daniel Sanderson here
‘This hypocritical Government has lost the moral authority to impose lockdown’
It seems almost inconceivable and yet it’s not. We could be headed for another lockdown, probably just after Christmas, writes Juliet Samuel. No one really believes that the measures announced by Boris Johnson this week will stop the new Covid variant from spreading.
The private reasoning of the officials recommending them and the ministers agreeing to them is that they need to prepare the public psychologically for the possibility of going back into lockdown.
The issue is the speed at which omicron spreads. It may be three times as transmissible as delta, which means it will have to be a lot milder to avoid overwhelming hospitals. Optimistically, the data so far suggest this may well be the case, but not with much certainty. The booster rollout has been nowhere near fast enough and January is expected to be the pinch-point, if there is one.
As ever, the overwhelming of the health system, rather than the actual number of Covid deaths, is the Government’s red line. Ministers calculate that it would be politically fatal to them if too many of us experience the terror of being unable to take a sick child or a car crash victim to hospital.
Juliet Samuel: Staying home must be conditional upon our social obligations
Michael Gove hints at tougher Covid restrictions amid ‘deeply concerning’ spread
Michael Gove appeared to open the door to new Covid restrictions yesterday as he said the UK faces a “deeply concerning situation” because of the rapid spread of the omicron variant.
“We absolutely need to keep everything under review”, said Mr Gove, the Communities Secretary, after chairing a Cobra meeting with devolved administration leaders.
The comments suggest it is possible tougher restrictions could be adopted soon, with government officials considering contingency measures described as “Plan C”.
Mr Gove has this week been pushing Cabinet colleagues to support going further than the “Plan B” measures announced on Wednesday, according to multiple government sources.
‘Plan C’ measures could be in place soon, suggests Michael Gove
Care homes limit visitors to three over omicron fears
Only three friends or family members and a care worker will be able to visit each care home resident under new government guidelines described as “deeply concerning”, Tony Diver reports.
The Department of Health and Social Care said the move was “in order to balance the current Covid-19 risk and the need to keep people safe in line with clinical advice” amid the emergence of omicron.
The regulations are expected to come into force on Wednesday and will restrict visits to care home residents during the Christmas period.
Fully vaccinated residents visiting family and friends outside the care home will be asked to take a lateral flow test on alternate days for two weeks after each outing, while those who are not vaccinated will have to isolate following an outside visit.
Staff testing in care homes will be increased from two lateral flow tests per week to three, alongside a weekly PCR test.
Full story: Fears for residents with dementia ahead of new rules
Vaccine passports may not be effective against omicron
Vaccine passports and other Covid certification measures may not be effective against the omicron variant, a leading professor has said.
Eleanor Riley, professor of immunology and infectious disease at the University of Edinburgh, said ministers had to consider the question of “what are we trying to achieve?” in the face of the rapid growth of a new variant which reduces vaccine efficacy.
“Are we trying to reduce transmission in venues with high occupation by asking everybody to be vaccinated?” Ms Riley said in an interview with BBC Radio 4.
“To be honest I’m not sure that especially with omicron in the mix I’m not sure that’s going to have much of an effect.”
She added she was “assuming” the measures were primarily being introduced in order to drive up immunisation rates among Britons who have not yet had a first dose of a coronavirus vaccine.
Prof Riley described the reduced time limit which allows people to have their booster within three months as “Very good news” and revealed she was “rapidly assessing” her own lifestyle, planning to stay at home for the next few days.
You must keep schools open come what may, Boris Johnson told
Boris Johnson has been urged to intervene to ensure that schools reopen fully after the Christmas break amid growing concern that the rise in omicron Covid cases could cause fresh chaos for children’s education.
A coalition including three former education ministers, the social mobility tsar and the Children’s Commissioner has demanded that schools stay open “come what may” and urged Mr Johnson to draw up fresh legal protections to ensure this happens.
It comes amid fears of further Covid restrictions after the UK Health Security Agency warned that if omicron continued to spread at the current rate, it would imminently become the dominant strain, with more than a million infections by the end of the year.
The UK has closed schools for longer than anywhere else in Europe apart from Italy during the Covid pandemic, with British children out of the classroom for half of all school days between January 2020 and this July.
Camilla Turner and Paul Nuki have more here
Covid booster vaccines give up to 75 per cent protection against mild omicron
Booster jabs offer up to 75 per cent protection from mild infection with the omicron Covid variant, new government data reveal.
The level of protection is around 20 per cent down from that given by a third dose against the delta variant.
Experts at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) have carried out analysis to calculate vaccine effectiveness, studying more than 500 people infected with omicron.
Officials found that after two doses, vaccine effectiveness against omicron dropped to around 40 per cent for Pfizer. There was insufficient evidence to give a figure for AstraZeneca.
However, a third jab sees a person’s protection against mild symptomatic disease rise to around 75 per cent for Pfizer and 70 per cent for AstraZeneca.
Joe Pinkstone and Ben Riley-Smith have the story
Omicron variant could act as a ‘natural vaccine’, suggests professor
Catching the omicron variant could act as a “natural vaccine” among people who are currently unvaccinated against coronavirus, an immunologist has suggested.
Eleanor Riley, a professor of immunology and infectious diseases at the University of Edinburgh, said that Britons are “very likely” to contract the variant “in the next couple of weeks”.
“Everybody’s very likely to experience it in the next few weeks. If it is milder, and we know infection induces an immune response, [so] it is possible that this could act as a natural vaccine, getting to those people who have so far been unwilling to be vaccinated,” Prof Riley told BBC Radio 4.
“But I think we have to exercise a huge degree of caution with that, because there’s a huge ‘if’ about this ‘is it milder?’ And I think it’s very dangerous to compare data from South Africa to the UK. In the South African population there’s been so many waves of infection they’ve gone through, lots of immunity and a much younger population.”